The BJP's MoSha leadership are past masters in encouraging defections from their allies if it helped their party capture the chief minister's chair. In Bihar, they are not sure if JD-U MPs and MLAs would be willing to cross over to the BJP if the Nitish leadership came on top -- and the NDA crossed the halfway mark together, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'If the BJP seriously addresses employment, examination integrity and systemic corruption, they might salvage their position. Otherwise, they are heading toward serious trouble in 2027.'
A SWOT analysis of the NDA coalition led by Nitish Kumar as Bihar heads into assembly elections, examining its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats against the INDIA bloc.
'The question for the TMC is not whether it can hold its bastions, but whether it can expand effectively into regions where the BJP already possesses a good ecosystem.'
In seniority in the BJP leadership team, V K Malhotra, who passed into the ages this week, was next only to Atal Bihari Vajpayee, L K Advani and Nanaji Deshmukh, notes Sudhir Bisht.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday claimed that a 'systematic vote chori' method, evolved by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Election Commission to 'kill Indian democracy', will be deployed in the Bihar assembly polls as well.
'But at least the stepping stone has started.'
'Every party want to contest more seats, nothing wrong in it. We have to compromise to take all together as the NDA.'
The NDA in Bihar, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, strategically countered the Mahagathbandan's moves by implementing similar policies and announcements, effectively neutralising the MGB campaign promises and maintaining their political advantage.
If women voters are mobilised in big numbers to the voting booths on November 6 and 11 by the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, then it will be quite difficult for the Tejashwi Yadav-led Mahagathbandhan to defeat the incumbent government, points out Sheela Bhatt.
The INDIA bloc in Bihar has announced Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial candidate, signaling a united front after weeks of internal disagreements. The move aims to challenge the incumbent NDA government, with both sides engaging in political maneuvering and accusations.
'We have 38 Dalits who are MLAs and ministers. But that does not mean the Dalits of Bihar are prospering.'
'If the RJD loses it would be out of power for nearly 25 years. Meanwhile, the JD-U will have survival issues if it gets less number of seats.'
While it is evident that the INDIA bloc has not shut its doors on Nitish Kumar, those within the NDA are hopeful that the JD-U's support base would benefit them as well
Like his father Karunanidhi and AIADMK rivals MGR and Jayalalithaa, Stalin would like to confine his real political work to Tamil Nadu, and not want to take after the late Congress leader K Kamaraj and take up a national role, even if to create greater political space for son Udhayanidhi, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
If the TVK joins the NDA, there is every likelihood of the AIADMK winning an absolute majority in the 234 seat assembly and wanting to form a stand-alone government. In turn, it could mean that the BJP especially and the TVK equally so, will want to restrict the AIADMK's seat share closer to the cut-off figure, if only to ensure that EPS won't get the absolute majority that he desires (if the NDA won, that is) and will have to settle for a coalition government, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The campaign by the Mahagathbandan has failed to capture the imagination of the electorate given the fatigue factor with the Nitish government.'
Union minister Chirag Paswan has caused a flutter by stating he would choose to give up his ministerial berth instead of a compromise on his principles, in keeping with the precedent set by his late father Ram Vilas Paswan.
'Karur could still impact Jana Nayagan's box-office success if Vijay and the TVK do not get their act together,' points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Sources said a couple of resolutions are expected to be passed at the crucial meeting, with an eye on the upcoming Bihar polls.
The two weeks that EPS took fending off the Sengottaiyan rebellion has since become lost time for the AIADMK as that was also the time Vijay took to go all-out against Stalin and the DMK, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
'The Election Commission's involvement in the avoidable SIR controversy has carried a message down to the last voter -- who just does not like it,' observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi jokingly mentioned ongoing discussions with RJD president Lalu Prasad regarding marriage, following a suggestion from Prasad's son to Union Minister Chirag Paswan.
Bharatiya Janata Party's National Democratic Alliance partners have got five cabinet ministerial berths in the third term of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as against none in the outgoing government, given the party's dependence on allies for a majority in the Lok Sabha.
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar appear to have got the maximum representation in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new council of ministers, while assembly poll-bound Maharashtra also found a significant presence.
Vijay, with his chief ministerial ambitions, is a one-man army, at least as of now, and his campaign team considers him omnipresent. He has to be present in all districts, if not all constituencies at the same time, as there is no second-line leader or platform speaker in the party, who can draw crowds, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
'Non-BJP state governments and their leaders, navigating today's political landscape, know well they have no clue what awaits around the corner.' 'The chances of charges pressed and oneself getting parked in custody play out on an uneven playing field,' points out Shyam G Menon.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a Rs 1,600-crore assistance package for flood-hit Punjab after reviewing the damage. He also announced ex gratia for the deceased and injured. The state is battling its worst deluge since 1988.
The Karur tragedy has exposed the huge gaps in Vijay's understanding of realpolitik, elections and political administration, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
AIADMK leader Edappadi K Palaniswami is under pressure from his party as his unclear stand on the BJP alliance has brought back fears among party workers that the party may lose its identity, be forced into an unwanted coalition, and be taken over by the BJP later, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Former Union Minister Pusapati Ashok Gajapathi Raju appointed as the Governor of Goa, Kavinder Gupta named as the new Lieutenant Governor of Ladakh, and Ashim Kumar Ghosh will be the new Governor of Haryana.
This is important because he is to be seen as a sure winner before criss-crossing the state to campaign for candidates of the party or an alliance, highlights N Sathiya Moorthy.
According to the National Democratic Alliance sources, the new government may allot five to six ministerial berths to the allies Janasena and Bharatiya Janata Party.
The National Democratic Alliance will contest the assembly polls in Bihar next year under the leadership of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Deputy Chief Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party leader Samrat Choudhary said on Sunday.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to form its government in Delhi after winning the recent assembly elections. Party leaders have stated that the new chief minister should be chosen from the elected BJP MLAs, with several contenders emerging from the newly-elected members. The decision on the next chief minister is expected to be made after Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns from his foreign visit around February 15.
Sources close to the top BJP leadership tell me that Tharoor has already had secret meetings with the BJP's top brass and is waiting patiently to make his next move, reports Ramesh Menon.
Kapil Mishra, a former AAP member and a vocal critic of the BJP, RSS, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has undergone a complete political transformation, becoming a controversial figure often regarded as the "posterboy of Hindutva." He has now been inducted as a minister in the newly formed Delhi government, marking a significant shift in his political allegiance and raising questions about his role in shaping the city's future.
At the customary meeting ahead of the session beginning Monday, the opposition raised various issues, including voter roll revision in Bihar, the Pahalgam terror attack and Trump's 'ceasefire' claims.
Over the medium and long term, the BJP hopes to devour the AIADMK, they having identified the party as 'ideologically not as sound as the DMK', predicts N Sathiya Moorthy.
The Bharat Ratna for him comes nine years after the honour was bestowed on former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The two leaders together spearheaded the journey of the Jana Sangh and then the BJP for over five decades.
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